INVEST 93L-NW CARIBBEAN

93L IS HISTORY. NEXT!

INVEST 93L-NW CARIBBEAN-UPDATE 6

The convection associated with 93L has continued to weaken overnight. The forecast models are on again off again with potential development and potential strength of the system. The HWRF is the most bullish while the other models are spread between weak development and no development. The good news is that the longer this takes to develop the less chance we have of dealing with a strong tropical cyclone. Today will be a wait and see day as the question will be whether 93L has another convective burst up it's sleeve and can get itself cranked up as it nears the Yucatan Channel. The NWS offices of Tampa, Melbourne, Miami, and Key West are also in a wait and see mode and none are bullish on development at this time. The NHC remains at code orange and still forecasts possible development when 93L enters the Gulf. Conditions in the Gulf are conducive for development with low wind shear and warm sst's, along with the ever present loop current right in 93L's path.

INVEST 93L-NW CARIBBEAN-UPDATE 5

The second run of the GFDL Hurricane model is out and now shows a 65 knot Hurricane impacting southwest Florida. Please keep in mind that these models are basing this forecast on the predicted development of a tropical depression. At this time we don't have a tropical depression or even a weak closed surface low, so take these model runs with a grain of salt, but don't completely ignore the possibility of tropical cyclone development.

INVEST 93L-NW CARIBBEAN-UPDATE 4

Even though we are at the time of day when you expect convection to diminish (diurnal minimum) it instead continues to increase. If this trend continues I would expect the NHC to become more bullish on development.

INVEST 93L-NW CARIBBEAN-UPDATE 3

18Z GFS at 72 hours.

INVEST 93L-NW CARIBBEAN-UPDATE 2

THE FIRST RUN OF THE HWRF HURRICANE MODEL IS OUT AND FORECASTS 93L TO BECOME A 50 KT TROPICAL STORM AS IT APPROACHES THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST IN 84 HOURS.

INVEST 93L-NW CARIBBEAN-UPDATE

THE NHC HAS RAISED THE DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL OF INVEST 93L.


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM CUBA AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS SOUTHWESTWARD TO HONDURAS. NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED BEFORE IT REACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
EARLY SATURDAY...BUT CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME A LITTLE
MORE FAVORABLE ONCE IT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO LATE
SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...
OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF CUBA AND
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TODAY AND SPREAD WESTWARD OVER NORTHERN CENTRAL
AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

INVEST 93L-NW CARIBBEAN

THE NHC HAS STARTED INVEST 93L ON THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN. PRESSURE IS 1008 MB, WINDS 2O KTS. THE NHC SHIPS MODELS INTENSIFY THE SYSTEM TO NEAR 60 KTS IN 120 HOURS.

Watching the western Caribbean

Showers and Thunderstorms are increasing in the western Caribbean in the vicinity of a tropical wave. The NHC has development chances at less than 30% at this time. The 06Z NAM develops a LOW and moves it north into the Gulf near the tip of the Yucatan in 48 hours

HURRICANE VIDEO

AUDIO FIRST. VIDEO BEGINS AT THE 1:30 MARK.